NES is sure getting most of the love yet again, yet I can't help but think that you're still way too positive in your prediction. Many of the games that are left are text adventure games/RPGs - looking at Spinner's list, that's around 80-90 titles, and if you look by genres, the only RPGs that were translated last year were Ganbare Goemon Gaiden, Light of Indra and Hydlide 3 I think... and not a single text adventure game was done. I'd assume that's largely because of hacking/translation difficulty, like all the mapper shenanigans, the lack of space etc.. That tells you a lot as to which games are popular translation targets for that system nowadays. Frankly, I think that most of the games will likely not be tackled at all, but as long as the more text-laden ones are dealt with, that's probably fine.
You're probably right. I'm just following the trends.
If you're arguing that folks here don't translate enough RPGs though, I'm not sure we're on the same board.
If I were to make a prediction
, I'd say that the upward trend will falter with around 100 games left. That's probably where there will be mostly baseball, mahjong, go, shougi, and potentially troublesome games left.
I'd still expect projects to happen in that situation though. The Famicom seems to be both a good learning console, and a comfort zone for many. A lot of those remaining games may be easy projects, and some folks just like doing a title screen hack, or other simple release here and there. Unfortunately, I expect there could be some batch of 30-40 titles that are just challenging or uninteresting for whatever reason that could languish for a while. It would be up to those looking for a challenge at that point. We have masochists here, right?
EDIT: Just for fun, I decided to check based on genres from last year only
, which genres of games fall under the trend of 5-10 years to complete, and which genres fall outside of that range.
According to my error prone and non-scientific counting up of games by genre, It appears shooters, platformers, action RPGs, board games (excluding mahjong/go/shougi), and RPGs would be on track to be finished in those 5-10 years.
On the other hand, pure action, strategy, sports, adventure, and misc games would fall outside that range by last year's measure. Those would need to be translated at a higher rate, presumably when games in the former genres run out.
In the case of SNES, the main genre is still RPGs, with about 70 left, but they're getting steadily knocked out. Text adventure games are few and far between. I personally would love to see more Mega Drive stuff, since I'm more nostalgic about that console (thanks for Battle Golfer Yui, by the way - hope you do more ), but it's good to see that some of the better SNES RPGs are still getting translated after all this time.
The cool thing about SNES/SFC RPGs, and Mega Drive games, is that there are about the same amount left untranslated of each! I am fairly confident that at least 2-3 RPGs (if not more) may be released for the SFC this coming year from a group I work with, so I'm excited for that.
As for the Mega Drive, the current rate of releases is slow, less than 2/year on average, but it wouldn't take much to knock out the bulk of the untranslated games for that system. 10 releases a year would see them finished in 7 years. Unfortunately, the Mega Drive games I've looked at since Battle Golfer Yui have been more challenging to work with, at least with my meager skills. Some actual hackers will need to dive into that library.