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Messages - Kegran

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Gaming Discussion / Re: Nintendo posts $530 million in losses
« on: May 04, 2012, 06:29:16 am »
Android is currently strongly profiteering from the general boom in the smartphone market, and it's the main choice for all who don't want to spend the money for an iPhone. However it's debateable if that success will last. Android has a huge huge problem that only gets huger every month - the update policy is utter bullshit. The average wait time for an Android phone to get the next version of Android is 9 friggin months (that's not every 9 months a new Android version - that means it takes 9 months after a new version has been released until it actually arrives on people's phones.) And that's just if your phone even gets an update at all, more and more models just stop getting updates, many never even got a single one. This pisses power users off and very understandably so.

The droid phone update debacle is an overrated problem. I've been through a few droid updates, and nothing is really ever so new. The most important update thus far has been 2.3.4 which introduces the android accessory mode (think iphone docks for droid) Aside from that as long as you are within three versions of the newest you may as well be up to date. The updates only really matter to nerds.

That being said, I can't wait until I get 4.0 on my Optimus 2x. LG needs to hurry the fuck up.

As far as Iphone goes by comparison, they've dropped support for a number of phones. Because some of the older phones don't have the juice to run the old enhancements. Let's be honest, droid runs on a far greater number of devices, with a huge amount of differentiations between each device. It would be impossible, and ridiculous to update them all. Just like it would be ridiculous to update a 486 to WinXP.

The current business model seems to be heading toward selling new devices via new software instead of via new hardware. At first this will only affect power users, since the average John Dumb probably has no clue what version his phone is even running and what is available, but the growing discotent with this situation will tickle down to the average customer over time.

I don't really disagree with that business model... One of the reasons why I find the cellphone game so exciting right now is the fact that the tech used, or rather the processor used is and emerging technology. Think of Intel/AMD chips back in the 90's/early 00's. Now x86 chips are boring making only strides of .1ghz per generation. Boring. whereas with the mobile phone market we're seeing strides from single to dual to quad core, and 600mhz to 800mhz to 1.5ghz. Holding onto an existing device, for a nerd, for more than a year, doesn't make any sense.

There are only a handful of no-excuse for update phones at the moment. My short list is:
LG Optimus 2x
Samsung Galaxy s2
add any other phone or device that runs a dual core or better processor, at or over 1ghz in speed, especially, but not necessarily, of the Tegra 2 variety.

Now when the ARM arch matures, there will be no reason NOT for manufacturers to update. I will agree that it could become a problem if the trend continues once ARMdroid becomes a mature tech.

I was worried that's how you were using it. The Arm build isn't strictly for mobile devices, and there will be mobile devices running on intel hardware too.

I'd just say Windows 8 Arm if that's what you meant to avoid confusion.

I think I'll continue calling it Win8 mobile actually. I think even though MS wants to get away from the stigma of their previous mobile platform's failures (see: WinCE and all previous derivatives on everything but the Dreamcast), the ARM version is best described as mobile... at the moment anyway due to ARM's less power hungry nature, and the fact that Win8 on phones/tablets is just a new version of windows mobile, in the same vein that Win8 will be a new version of Wintel. The reason I will do so is because no one but nerdy nerds will instantly understand the differentiation between the two. Again as we see the ARM arch evolves, and most likely becomes dominant due to the un-upgradeable nature of SOCs, this may become less true, but for now it fits.

Honestly, I'm not a fan of the possiblility of SOCs invading my desktop PC, and I hope Intel/AMD, and ATX remain. As was alluded to earlier, buying new devices just for an upgrade kinda sucks.

Gaming Discussion / Re: Nintendo posts $530 million in losses
« on: May 04, 2012, 12:45:33 am »
Dude you must be reading very different market share reports than I am.  And if you are around techies all day, of course it will seem like Droid is winning.  Techies buy Droid (as well they should).  But bebop around the mall, the coffee shops, and society in general, you'll see the iPhone is heavily prevalent.  Go walk around a college campus, especially any liberal arts college, Apple Apple everywhere.

I don't think I will walk a liberal arts campus... Not my style. Anyway, I guess I am looking at different reports, as from what I've seen droid owns slightly over 50% of the smart phone market. They barely have any traction in the tablet market though.

I just need to clear up some terminology here because it's getting confusing.

There is no Windows Mobile anymore, and this is relevant because there IS:

Windows 8, and

Windows Phone

There is Windows 8 and Windows phone. However there will be two different Windows 8's. There will be a win8 that runs on intel hardware, and one that runs on arm. I've used the term win8 mobile because it's a tablet interface that may show itself on phones.

So, I could just have said "Windows 8", but that term was broader than I was looking for. While it isn't officially 'Windows 8 mobile', it is the mobile/tablet/ARM/possibly mobile phone interface.

Besides, I think you knew what I meant.

Gaming Discussion / Re: Nintendo posts $530 million in losses
« on: May 03, 2012, 12:38:16 am »
Sony was the Apple of their day...which is why, I believe, it has been proven that Apple cannot succeed in it's current state, at least not long term. People got sick of the BS involved with Sony products, which is why Sony is in a heap of shit, and people will most likely get pissed at Apple for the same reasons eventually. It's amazing how many customers you can lose just because your decided that it just had to have it's own proprietary charger and media format. Make no mistake, it wasn't Sony's pricing model that was/is their downfall, it was/is the consumer unfriendly attitude toward accessories they have/had.

If you look at the business plans of Sony from just a year or so ago, and Apple they are similar: loaded with proprietary BS, and attempts to wall themselves off. Itunes, proprietary chargers, special memory cards or lack of memory card support. It's the kind of stuff people get sick of. But who knows, Apple may succeed where Sony failed...

However Sony is slowly changing, which I respect them for. I even lifted my personal ban on owning Sony products after they actually managed to adopt a recognized standard: regular-ass USB then they retired the micro memory stick format for microsd. I now own a Sony TV, and it's pretty damn good. Which is why I said Sony will continue being Sony. Which I meant the Sony of today, not the Sony of yesteryear. I expect them to turn around. They do still make a superior product. For example: Sony laptops have one thing that makes them almost worth the extra $$$, the keyboard. I've seen a lot of laptops, and a lot of laptop keyboards, but Sony's keyboard of all things showcased the quality of the build. As does everything about my TV showcase the quality Sony is capable of when they aren't comfortably raking in case by screwing their customer. And just a bit of inside advice: stay away from HP PCs and laptops made this and last quarter. Hard disk problems are plaguing them at the moment.

It's going to be Android all the way...maybe even Windows 8 mobile.
Whoa ho, do I not agree with you.  I read articles like this and that.  Especially something like this.

Droid, which is younger than Iphone, is still destroying Apple in terms of market share. I deal with tech daily in my job, and I meet more and more people who wish they bought a droid. Now I know anecdotal evidence does not evidence make, but I've used the Iphone, and the droid, and the droid is more versatile (or more easily more versatile if that makes sense) and I think people are starting to recognize that. In the end, software developers are nerds, and nerds tend to like tech which 'can' as opposed to tech that 'can if they let you'. Ballmer made himself look like an idiot, but really "Developer, developers, developers." makes sense.

On the other hand corporations go nuts for tech that 'can if they let you' (see how long it took to release Netflix on IOS vs droid), so I'm not shrugging off Apple dominance as something that can't happen. I just don't believe that Apple's strategies can succeed in making them a market leader, and cornhole them into the trendy, fringe market by design. I think they've proved this themselves with MacOS, and I think it will hold true with IOS, and anything else they touch unless they make some changes.

As far as win8 mobile, I wouldn't discount them even if their showing the the mobile market hasn't been strong they are still M$. MS has a hybrid strategy of more akin to 'You can do whatever you want as long as it isn't this specific thing right here', which has allowed Windows to flourish. It's a median between Walled Garden, and Open Field. I guess we'll call it the ability to jump the fence? Meh, I'm rambling.

I wouldn't be surprised if in a few years MS destroys Apple, and Android in at least the tablet market. I just don't know if I could handle having to reboot my phone every ten seconds so I'm probably wishing for continued android dominance in the phone market cause I don't have to project droid dominance; it's already happening. The alternatives to droid just scare me.

In the long term, your cellphone will be your computer.  It will wirelessly sync to your TV, your monitor, your keyboard and mouse, etc.  This day will come within 10 years surely.  Desktop's and laptop's days are numbered, but I won't put an estimate to exactly what that number of days is.

Yeah I'm forecasting for an undetermined amount of time in the future, and I'm glad someone doesn't think I'm nuts. I know it's coming, just like I knew back in '96 unlimited cellphone plans were coming, and people told me I was nuts. That took way longer than even I suspected...
Oh, and don't discount the possibility of built in projectors on smart phones...

Actually, I thought this was cool:

I'm sorry for the link to a web store, and I'm not an affiliate, or trying to sell anything.

Without posting a shit load of links, I'll tl;dr it for you.  Don't be surprised to see a "Steam Box" from Valve.  Basically a computer in a console package, with Linux as the OS, that runs games streamed from Steam.  Just remember who told you first.

I wouldn't be completely surprised actually. I'd just question how it could replace, or be a substitute for a PC. Besides, we have been seeing trends toward all-in-one tech solutions vs. stand alone solutions for a while now. If they do release a steam box I doubt it will enjoy any longevity.

Anyway, I'm not saying your forecast was wrong, I was just dropping my hat in the ring 'cause, as you can tell, I like the subject of tech forecasting.

May 03, 2012, 12:46:24 am - (Auto Merged - Double Posts are not allowed before 7 days.)
However, do not discount lazy.  A great many people would rather pop a disc in a console and just play the damn thing (or stream the game direct), than have to fiddle with installations, patching, and manual settings.  For PC gaming to take over as the main gaming platform, it needs to become dirt simple.

Haha, it's actually funny. You've just nailed the reason I'm not a PC gamer. I'm lazy.

I've never understood why I had to both install a PC game, and have the game in the drive (well I understand, but I don't approve of it). If I could install the game, and run it without the disk in the drive I'd easily be a PC gamer. Or if I just just put the disk in the drive and play it without installing it, I'd be a PC gamer. I just can't stand to do both.

Sorry for the double post.

Gaming Discussion / Re: Nintendo posts $530 million in losses
« on: May 02, 2012, 06:38:44 am »

So here's my herp derp forecast because I'm feeling randy:

The Vita will be the last Sony portable gaming device.  The PS4 will be their last console.

Microsoft will win big at first with the "720" or whatever it is going to be called, but Valve will hurt them soon enough.

The 3DS and Wii U will keep Nintendo afloat, but not comfortably in the black.  Their will be some major corporate personnel shuffling, firing, hiring, within NOA/NOJ during the Wii U's life cycle.  Nintendo will come back stronger and smarter after, but time will tell if it will be enough.

Valve will introduce a streaming box that hooks you directly to your Steam library, no PC required.  Half-Life 3 will be the launch killer app.

Apple will gain control of the portable market.  I would love to be wrong about that.

Perhaps none of that will come true but that's what the 8-Ball just told me.

My forecast is a little bit more extreme, actually.

I think gaming in general will move from dedicated consoles to PCs, and mobile platforms, namely smartphones. Console gaming will become a thing of the past. Nintendo will attempt to move into the mobile phone market (NGAGE'D!), but as was evidenced by the Wii their plans and the public's reception to them are hard to pin down. Sony will just continue being Sony who already has a mobile phone business and is pushing a mobile gaming platform on it already. Microsoft will continue being Microsoft, who has a software business, and a mobile business, which isn't doing so well, but has Xbox Live.

The market has been trending toward PCs owning the gaming market ever since processor speed gains became mostly flat. The average PC has more power than most consoles, alot more function, and may cost less than some consoles. You can evidence the move by examining how recent console are trying to be more PC-like. I can Facebook on my computer, play games, watch Netflix, etc. I can do most of that on my Wii too. It's a tech merge, just like the decline in digital camera, and GPS sales has occurred due to most smartphones having cameras and GPSs, and the death of netbooks due to tablets and phones sharing the same functions, and having even smaller form-factors. Also, AMD's Apu's have made decent powered computers with decent integrated graphics at a decent price possible. While they aren't power houses they can get the job done. This may be a signal that your television may become your computer, and game console all-in-one.

The death of consoles is on the horizon, but I won't guess how many generations are left. Maybe Wii U, PS4 , and new Xbox will be the last.

Apple will not gain control of the portable market, and when I say "portable" I've merged the portable market with the smartphone market. It's going to be Android all the way...maybe even Windows 8 mobile. Android will have better market share initially, but Win mobile 8 will have better DRM. Better DRM means more commercial software will be drawn to them. Apple will then again be pushed back where it belongs: a trendy fringe product. The death of Steve Jobs has crippled Apple more than they themselves, or anyone else realizes. I doubt without Jobs' vision they will go down any path worth taking. Then again, they may open up a little, and drop prices to be competitive. Who knows. But the good money is on them staying second banana, or profitable, a good buy to stockholders, and making anyone who owns one of their products feel vastly superior to have-nots. The greatest thing Apple has contributed to the world is the realization that nobody actually needs Flash. Don't get me started on Adobe and how they are tards...

As far as Win8 mobile goes, it will either become dominant or live up to it's older win mobile namesake: "WinCE" (or "wince" for better clarity). It's main problem will be that it fragments the Windows name. People will buy Wince8 tablets and devices expecting them to offer the same software packages as regular-ass Windows. You may even drop out of college because of it...



But MS has clout, and cash. Your television could end up being your docking station for your Win8 Device, which will make it a smart tv/PC/game console/mobile gaming platform/phone. Their biggest hurdle is that win8 ARM won't support Win8tel software. We'll see what happens as the ARM arch catches up with the Intel arch in terms of power.

As far as valve goes, they aren't in the hardware business, and aren't going to be. Steam mobile looks like a joke right now, but I doubt they're going to stop with this lame app. I'd expect actual steam games on mobile platforms in the not very near future.

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